The role of random factors in predicting of different sports

Football. Football matches are held in open areas, so the weather is important for the outcome of the game. Usually the performance of matches decreases under adverse weather conditions, as well as during the cold season. You also need to take into account the state of the field during rain or snow – as a rule, it becomes slippery, and this greatly increases the chance of injury to players. Of course, the weather, physical form, team members, etc. – all that matters. But not critical. These factors need only be taken into account, and not build on them your strategy. At least that’s what professional bettors do. The basis for betting strategy should be statistics, archive of coefficients and ROI. It is also necessary to take into account the dispersion factor. Everything else is just an addition.

Hockey. Hockey matches are held in indoor areas, so the weather conditions are irrelevant. Making bets on hockey, it is desirable to take into account the rotation of players – due to the long season and tight schedule, it can influence the prediction. And although the influence of the human factor is minimal here, and a draw is impossible at all, you only need to rely on statistical data and your own betting model.

Basketball. Weather and human factors do not matter in basketball.

Tennis. As in all individual sports, the influence of the random factor in tennis is very large. The level of motivation, mood, health, injuries, weather, and even court coverage can also affect the emotional state and physical form of the player (considering that even many hard surfaces are significantly different from each other). Therefore, in the predictability of this sport, perhaps, much inferior to any team game.

The influence of random factors on the outcome of the match in any sport cannot be denied, of course. But to make a start only from this, making bets is not a very rational decision.

What tools need to be used for the most accurate prediction of outcomes?

The basis of professional betting should not be random factors, but a strategy and a betting model based on mathematical calculations. The developed model must be tested on a long distance, using at least 10 thousand matches. After the model confirms its effectiveness, you can start using it for betting. How to check the model for so many games, if it takes years?

And here you just need an archive of coefficients. Already played matches – an excellent base to get rid of your model on it. If you want to reach huge heights in betting and make a fortune on stakes, you should focus on the ROI.

ROI is needed to determine profitability rates (and strategies in general) for a long distance. Thanks to him, you can see whether your forecasts are really effective and generate income. After all, players are often misled, believing that a series of passable bets brings them income. And in fact, it remains at a loss and does not even suspect it for the time being. But professional bettors are constantly calculating ROI, so they clearly know how much money they invested in their game, and how much they really earned. In case the developed strategy turns out to be unprofitable, the bettor can correct it in time, thus avoiding complete ruin. Of course, not a single professional bettor today can do without such an effective and advanced tool as statistics. Her data is the most powerful and important tool. And if you use it, you can be one step or even two steps ahead of the pool of players. You also have to remember that you have to use only reliable websites for betting. Pinup live betting is an example of a really good one. This is the best way to try your own strategy and make some predictions.